关键词: 水库移民, 概率模型, 集成赋权法, 效果评价, 二项分布

Abstract: Population migration often leads to the reconstruction of immigrants' production and living and brings about poor population.In order to better carry out the work of reservoir resettlement assistance,it is necessary to build a reasonable evaluation model.In this paper,an index system was established based on the national policy documents,the weight was calculated by the integrated weighting method,and the probability model was proposed by the binomial distribution idea for comprehensive evaluation.The probability model introduces the idea of probability theory,extracts the main information from the database,distinguishes whether there is any help effect through the division standard comparison,and then uses the same kind of superposition to score,which avoids the problem of artificial determination of the optimal scheme and division level,making the model intuitive,simple and accurate.Through the calculation of the model,we can quickly find the shortcomings in the work of migrant assistance,and provide a feasible reference for the government's subsequent assistance planning.After analysis,the evaluation result of this method is objective and in line with the local actual situation.

Key words: reservoir resettlement, probability model, integrated weighting method, effect evaluation, binomial distribution